A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
